Markets this week have been running on vibes and geopolitics in roughly equal measure. Stocks rose and oil fell the moment Trump hinted at Iran de-escalation — a swing so dramatic it revealed just how thin the fundamental reasoning underneath asset prices actually is right now. Meanwhile, gold and silver are plummeting despite an active regional war, which shouldn't happen in any classical safe-haven playbook. The rules have changed, and nobody has published the new ones.
Tax Refunds, Gas Prices, and the Psychology of 'Fine'
The macro chaos has a very domestic texture. Americans expecting bigger tax refunds are likely to spend them on gas — which means the fiscal stimulus from Trump's tax cuts is being quietly eaten by energy costs inflated by the same administration's foreign policy.